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	<title>Comments for Geoffrey Forden</title>
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	<link>http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com</link>
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		<title>Comment on All Good Things… by Jochen Schischka</title>
		<link>http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/2831/all-good-things%e2%80%a6#comment-2464</link>
		<dc:creator>Jochen Schischka</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Aug 2010 20:12:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/?p=2831#comment-2464</guid>
		<description>Geoff, i think i speak for all when i say that you will be missed sadly. The gap you&#039;ll leave behind here at ACW will be difficult to fill.

I for my part particularly enjoyed everything related to missiles (even though there were some canards in that category - like that story about the &#039;new north-korean two-staged missile&#039;, which eventually turned out to be in fact a south-korean rocket-boosted anti-submarine-torpedo...), and your posts on the &#039;How of Proliferation&#039; were excellent work.

Good luck with your new job - and keep watching the skies!

P.S.: BTW, i&#039;m not really surprised by what you write about &#039;unpleasant&#039; reactions on comments considering NASA’s manned space flight program or UFOs. Those two topics seem to be highly attractive to people with fanatical commitment, and fanatics typically will try to forcefully suppress anything openly undermining their (illogical) beliefs.
Thankfully, blogging is rather unphysical - so any sort of aggressive behaviour will in most cases be limited to written form...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Geoff, i think i speak for all when i say that you will be missed sadly. The gap you&#8217;ll leave behind here at ACW will be difficult to fill.</p>
<p>I for my part particularly enjoyed everything related to missiles (even though there were some canards in that category &#8211; like that story about the &#8216;new north-korean two-staged missile&#8217;, which eventually turned out to be in fact a south-korean rocket-boosted anti-submarine-torpedo&#8230;), and your posts on the &#8216;How of Proliferation&#8217; were excellent work.</p>
<p>Good luck with your new job &#8211; and keep watching the skies!</p>
<p>P.S.: BTW, i&#8217;m not really surprised by what you write about &#8216;unpleasant&#8217; reactions on comments considering NASA’s manned space flight program or UFOs. Those two topics seem to be highly attractive to people with fanatical commitment, and fanatics typically will try to forcefully suppress anything openly undermining their (illogical) beliefs.<br />
Thankfully, blogging is rather unphysical &#8211; so any sort of aggressive behaviour will in most cases be limited to written form&#8230;</p>
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		<title>Comment on DF-21 Delta: Some Early Thoughts by george</title>
		<link>http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/2819/df-21-delta-some-early-thoughts#comment-2463</link>
		<dc:creator>george</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Aug 2010 03:52:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/?p=2819#comment-2463</guid>
		<description>i have read a Chinese source some years ago discussing how to sink an air craft carrier. they suggested they will fire 1000 missiles at the same time to target one target that is air aircraft carrier. if that is the case would there be enough anti missiles to knock down 1000 missiles at the same time. that is why they are going to mass producing the df 21d after further field test.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>i have read a Chinese source some years ago discussing how to sink an air craft carrier. they suggested they will fire 1000 missiles at the same time to target one target that is air aircraft carrier. if that is the case would there be enough anti missiles to knock down 1000 missiles at the same time. that is why they are going to mass producing the df 21d after further field test.</p>
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		<title>Comment on DF-21 Delta: Some Early Thoughts by Walt</title>
		<link>http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/2819/df-21-delta-some-early-thoughts#comment-2462</link>
		<dc:creator>Walt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Aug 2010 01:20:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/?p=2819#comment-2462</guid>
		<description>How hard would it be to spoof the terminal guidance sensors.  Would flare launching systems on all the ships in a battle group create sufficient confusion in the sensor to dramatically reduce its accuracy.  Same question for chaff launchers.  At the Mach 10 or higher speeds of the presumed ASBM the sensors might not have the time necessary to discriminate between decoys (either thermal or radar) and would fail to find the target.

Putting that as the inner layer in a layered defense (under the SM-2&#039;s and 3&#039;s) might reduce the effectiveness of the system to a point where it wouldn&#039;t justify the risk inherent in the attack itself.

Make sense?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How hard would it be to spoof the terminal guidance sensors.  Would flare launching systems on all the ships in a battle group create sufficient confusion in the sensor to dramatically reduce its accuracy.  Same question for chaff launchers.  At the Mach 10 or higher speeds of the presumed ASBM the sensors might not have the time necessary to discriminate between decoys (either thermal or radar) and would fail to find the target.</p>
<p>Putting that as the inner layer in a layered defense (under the SM-2&#8242;s and 3&#8242;s) might reduce the effectiveness of the system to a point where it wouldn&#8217;t justify the risk inherent in the attack itself.</p>
<p>Make sense?</p>
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		<title>Comment on DF-21 Delta: Some Early Thoughts by Andrew Tubbiolo</title>
		<link>http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/2819/df-21-delta-some-early-thoughts#comment-2461</link>
		<dc:creator>Andrew Tubbiolo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Aug 2010 00:55:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/?p=2819#comment-2461</guid>
		<description>@muttling An orbital platform almost guarantees that you&#039;d need a large number of stations. The Earth rotates under a satellites orbital plane and you may only have 4 or so passes per day that would allow you to take a shot at a CVN. Think of the Iridium satellite communications system that uses over 60 satellites in order to maintain coverage over the planet. The nature of the subject would require this many satellites for 1 customer or millions. Same with attacking ground target from orbit. Ground based platforms on hair trigger alert are cheaper, easier to make, and more effective.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@muttling An orbital platform almost guarantees that you&#8217;d need a large number of stations. The Earth rotates under a satellites orbital plane and you may only have 4 or so passes per day that would allow you to take a shot at a CVN. Think of the Iridium satellite communications system that uses over 60 satellites in order to maintain coverage over the planet. The nature of the subject would require this many satellites for 1 customer or millions. Same with attacking ground target from orbit. Ground based platforms on hair trigger alert are cheaper, easier to make, and more effective.</p>
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		<title>Comment on DF-21 Delta: Some Early Thoughts by Andy</title>
		<link>http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/2819/df-21-delta-some-early-thoughts#comment-2460</link>
		<dc:creator>Andy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Aug 2010 17:25:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/?p=2819#comment-2460</guid>
		<description>Well have to drop my cents on a point that has been forgotten here: cooperative engagement capability.

Since the more AEGIS Ships you have in one group the better and more accurate is your tracking and terminal guidance of the interceptor. Means one AEGIS Ships barely has a chance against a sophisticated Anti-Ship missile (Sizzler, Brahmos, DF-21D, maybe even against an exocet or harpoon) But you can track and illumintate the target  more accurate especially a High-G maneuvering missile in terminal flight if you use x&gt;1 AEGIS ship, above that cooperative engagement capability gives you greater range to detect the target (battlespace awareness). 

Some of you pointed out the number of cells a Tico has. That does not matter in a battle-group! AEGIS selects the right weapon from the right ship in the best shooting position automatically if incoming is detected. (remember Iranian Flight shot down by SM-2 (or 1?))

compared to the russian AD Systems the US relies on layered defense. from outer to inner: SM-3, SM-6 (Im a fan of this one already), SM-2 RIM-66M Block IIIB, ESSM, SeaRAM, CIWS. On land based you can put THAAD between SM-6 and SM-2 Block IIIB and PAC-3 somewhere around ESSM and PAC-2 (by trend Anti Aircraft) somewhere around RIM-66M.  

As for the vast number of incoming Anti Ship missile keep in mind that the ESSM (an extremely sophisticated interceptor, used as the primary interceptor by many american-buying navies around the world and that means something) can be quadpacked into the MK41. Given the fact that a DDG-100 (i.e.) has just 10 cells for ESSM makes 40 missiles you can fire at an incoming now add the cooperative engagement capability. 

I at this point highly doubt that a Carrier Strike Group with 2 Ticos and 3 Burkes maybe even a SanAntonio armed with seaRam and the carrier itself is an easy target for a DF-21D. 

almost forgot: the E-2C and soon the E-2D with AESA can be integrated into the cooperative engagement capability. 

This makes our carriers the best defended airfields in the world! And those are facts and not paper tigers!

BTW: since I am a fan the SM-6 is close to IOC. And do not forget the SM-2 RIM-66M Block IIIB has a IR seeker and a maneuvering upgrade (I assume it to be thrust vectoring correct me if you have better information here)

thanks for reading.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well have to drop my cents on a point that has been forgotten here: cooperative engagement capability.</p>
<p>Since the more AEGIS Ships you have in one group the better and more accurate is your tracking and terminal guidance of the interceptor. Means one AEGIS Ships barely has a chance against a sophisticated Anti-Ship missile (Sizzler, Brahmos, DF-21D, maybe even against an exocet or harpoon) But you can track and illumintate the target  more accurate especially a High-G maneuvering missile in terminal flight if you use x&gt;1 AEGIS ship, above that cooperative engagement capability gives you greater range to detect the target (battlespace awareness). </p>
<p>Some of you pointed out the number of cells a Tico has. That does not matter in a battle-group! AEGIS selects the right weapon from the right ship in the best shooting position automatically if incoming is detected. (remember Iranian Flight shot down by SM-2 (or 1?))</p>
<p>compared to the russian AD Systems the US relies on layered defense. from outer to inner: SM-3, SM-6 (Im a fan of this one already), SM-2 RIM-66M Block IIIB, ESSM, SeaRAM, CIWS. On land based you can put THAAD between SM-6 and SM-2 Block IIIB and PAC-3 somewhere around ESSM and PAC-2 (by trend Anti Aircraft) somewhere around RIM-66M.  </p>
<p>As for the vast number of incoming Anti Ship missile keep in mind that the ESSM (an extremely sophisticated interceptor, used as the primary interceptor by many american-buying navies around the world and that means something) can be quadpacked into the MK41. Given the fact that a DDG-100 (i.e.) has just 10 cells for ESSM makes 40 missiles you can fire at an incoming now add the cooperative engagement capability. </p>
<p>I at this point highly doubt that a Carrier Strike Group with 2 Ticos and 3 Burkes maybe even a SanAntonio armed with seaRam and the carrier itself is an easy target for a DF-21D. </p>
<p>almost forgot: the E-2C and soon the E-2D with AESA can be integrated into the cooperative engagement capability. </p>
<p>This makes our carriers the best defended airfields in the world! And those are facts and not paper tigers!</p>
<p>BTW: since I am a fan the SM-6 is close to IOC. And do not forget the SM-2 RIM-66M Block IIIB has a IR seeker and a maneuvering upgrade (I assume it to be thrust vectoring correct me if you have better information here)</p>
<p>thanks for reading.</p>
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		<title>Comment on DF-21 Delta: Some Early Thoughts by JR</title>
		<link>http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/2819/df-21-delta-some-early-thoughts#comment-2459</link>
		<dc:creator>JR</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Aug 2010 15:48:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/?p=2819#comment-2459</guid>
		<description>Regarding infrared sensor aiming, when I was in the USN 30 years ago, my WW-II vintage ship had equipment capable of covering the entire ship with a deluge of water, to defend against fallout and chemical attack. [Hoping I&#039;m not divulging top secret stuff here!]  We&#039;re talking about facilities capable of pumping many thousands of gallons of water almost instantly here.

Surely such defensive equipment is still designed into our fleet?

Wouldn&#039;t surrounding a ship with a shower of spray prevent an IR sensor from detecting that  ship now surrounded by a cooling shower of sea water that started at the same temperature as the surrounding sea, but which is now cooler by evaporation?

I imagine it might even affect radar, I know rain has a effect on weather radar and satellite communications.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Regarding infrared sensor aiming, when I was in the USN 30 years ago, my WW-II vintage ship had equipment capable of covering the entire ship with a deluge of water, to defend against fallout and chemical attack. [Hoping I'm not divulging top secret stuff here!]  We&#8217;re talking about facilities capable of pumping many thousands of gallons of water almost instantly here.</p>
<p>Surely such defensive equipment is still designed into our fleet?</p>
<p>Wouldn&#8217;t surrounding a ship with a shower of spray prevent an IR sensor from detecting that  ship now surrounded by a cooling shower of sea water that started at the same temperature as the surrounding sea, but which is now cooler by evaporation?</p>
<p>I imagine it might even affect radar, I know rain has a effect on weather radar and satellite communications.</p>
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		<title>Comment on DF-21 Delta: Some Early Thoughts by JR</title>
		<link>http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/2819/df-21-delta-some-early-thoughts#comment-2458</link>
		<dc:creator>JR</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Aug 2010 12:49:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/?p=2819#comment-2458</guid>
		<description>@Dan, the power required is probably doable, but getting the beam to stick to the target with enough power and dwell time is the challenge.

Burnout velocity for a 2,000-km system is about 2km/s (using gross rule of thumb: 1km/s vel for each 1,000km of range).  So before it hits thick atmosphere on descent -- say, 50km altitude -- it&#039;s going to be moving that quickly in a ballistic trajectory.  You either need to dwell on the target during the long exoatmospheric descent from apogee to reentry, and deal with shooting through 100km of atmosphere as well as the inverse-square law robbing you of your power, or you need to wait until it&#039;s reentering, which introduces a whole other raft of challenges.

Once it reenters, even if it&#039;s unguided, the deceleration is going to make it bloody difficult to keep a beam tracking on the RV.  The axial acceleration curve is going to spike somewhere well north of 30 Gs (maybe even 100 Gs?), and it&#039;s not going to be a constant acceleration either.  Now add the hypothetical terminal guidance, and realize that the RV is probably trying to induce lateral acceleration as well.  All of this is happening in the Mach 7 - Mach 3 regime... it&#039;s a tracking nightmare, and you&#039;re talking about trying to bulls-eye the guidance system.  You might have better luck aiming for the center of mass and overloading the thermal protection system; it&#039;s designed to survive reentry, but if you can add more heat than it can slough off, perhaps you can cook a hole in the shielding and let atmospheric friction do the work.

If there is terminal guidance, even if the guidance system is getting good data, the control system will not be able to recover from having a hole burned into the RV.  That&#039;s where I&#039;d put my terawatt laser if I had one.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Dan, the power required is probably doable, but getting the beam to stick to the target with enough power and dwell time is the challenge.</p>
<p>Burnout velocity for a 2,000-km system is about 2km/s (using gross rule of thumb: 1km/s vel for each 1,000km of range).  So before it hits thick atmosphere on descent &#8212; say, 50km altitude &#8212; it&#8217;s going to be moving that quickly in a ballistic trajectory.  You either need to dwell on the target during the long exoatmospheric descent from apogee to reentry, and deal with shooting through 100km of atmosphere as well as the inverse-square law robbing you of your power, or you need to wait until it&#8217;s reentering, which introduces a whole other raft of challenges.</p>
<p>Once it reenters, even if it&#8217;s unguided, the deceleration is going to make it bloody difficult to keep a beam tracking on the RV.  The axial acceleration curve is going to spike somewhere well north of 30 Gs (maybe even 100 Gs?), and it&#8217;s not going to be a constant acceleration either.  Now add the hypothetical terminal guidance, and realize that the RV is probably trying to induce lateral acceleration as well.  All of this is happening in the Mach 7 &#8211; Mach 3 regime&#8230; it&#8217;s a tracking nightmare, and you&#8217;re talking about trying to bulls-eye the guidance system.  You might have better luck aiming for the center of mass and overloading the thermal protection system; it&#8217;s designed to survive reentry, but if you can add more heat than it can slough off, perhaps you can cook a hole in the shielding and let atmospheric friction do the work.</p>
<p>If there is terminal guidance, even if the guidance system is getting good data, the control system will not be able to recover from having a hole burned into the RV.  That&#8217;s where I&#8217;d put my terawatt laser if I had one.</p>
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		<title>Comment on DF-21 Delta: Some Early Thoughts by ajay</title>
		<link>http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/2819/df-21-delta-some-early-thoughts#comment-2457</link>
		<dc:creator>ajay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Aug 2010 09:28:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/?p=2819#comment-2457</guid>
		<description>Dan: because modern navies are confident in their ability to defeat Exocet attacks through a three-layered defence of fighter aircraft patrols (to knock down the attacking aircraft before they launch their Exocets), escort destroyers firing anti-missile missiles (to knock down the missiles at long range) and close-in weapon systems (rapid-firing radar-aimed guns to knock down the missiles just before they hit). 

The outermost layer is the only one that&#039;s ever been properly tested, though. There&#039;s only one example in history of a real escort hitting a real missile with an anti-missile missile, and no examples of a close-in weapon system working in combat.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dan: because modern navies are confident in their ability to defeat Exocet attacks through a three-layered defence of fighter aircraft patrols (to knock down the attacking aircraft before they launch their Exocets), escort destroyers firing anti-missile missiles (to knock down the missiles at long range) and close-in weapon systems (rapid-firing radar-aimed guns to knock down the missiles just before they hit). </p>
<p>The outermost layer is the only one that&#8217;s ever been properly tested, though. There&#8217;s only one example in history of a real escort hitting a real missile with an anti-missile missile, and no examples of a close-in weapon system working in combat.</p>
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		<title>Comment on DF-21 Delta: Some Early Thoughts by muttling</title>
		<link>http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/2819/df-21-delta-some-early-thoughts#comment-2456</link>
		<dc:creator>muttling</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Aug 2010 01:57:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/?p=2819#comment-2456</guid>
		<description>A very interesting read.

Two commments....


1 - What about a space based launch platform like the old Russian Polyus which failed on launch?   It seems to me like a space based launch platform would greatly reduce the complications that have been described.

I know that there are a lot of treaty issues with weaponizing space, but it would seem to me that they could deploy a small number of some sattelites that appear to have other purposes but are actually carrier killers and no one would know until they attacked.


2 - @Dan,

Exocets aren&#039;t the threat to our carriers that you think.  You must first get an aircraft close enough to launch one (not easy.)   Then your pilot must target the correct ship (not as easy as you might think.)   Carriers don&#039;t sail by themselves, they run with a pretty stiff escort to protect them.   They have their own Phalanx systems along with the Phalanx systems of their escorts.   Even IF an Exocet gets through, it would do some damage but it would take a BUNCH to take out a carrier.   These aren&#039;t the smaller, aluminum hull vessels that were roasted in the Falklands.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A very interesting read.</p>
<p>Two commments&#8230;.</p>
<p>1 &#8211; What about a space based launch platform like the old Russian Polyus which failed on launch?   It seems to me like a space based launch platform would greatly reduce the complications that have been described.</p>
<p>I know that there are a lot of treaty issues with weaponizing space, but it would seem to me that they could deploy a small number of some sattelites that appear to have other purposes but are actually carrier killers and no one would know until they attacked.</p>
<p>2 &#8211; @Dan,</p>
<p>Exocets aren&#8217;t the threat to our carriers that you think.  You must first get an aircraft close enough to launch one (not easy.)   Then your pilot must target the correct ship (not as easy as you might think.)   Carriers don&#8217;t sail by themselves, they run with a pretty stiff escort to protect them.   They have their own Phalanx systems along with the Phalanx systems of their escorts.   Even IF an Exocet gets through, it would do some damage but it would take a BUNCH to take out a carrier.   These aren&#8217;t the smaller, aluminum hull vessels that were roasted in the Falklands.</p>
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		<title>Comment on DF-21 Delta: Some Early Thoughts by Dan</title>
		<link>http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/2819/df-21-delta-some-early-thoughts#comment-2455</link>
		<dc:creator>Dan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Aug 2010 21:25:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/?p=2819#comment-2455</guid>
		<description>Could someone who knows a lot more about lasers that I do speculate on the required laser power to make the aforementioned terminal guidance system unhappy/ineffective. It seems that 10 kw laser power at a minimum is currently doable.  Is this enough to disable terminal guidance?  That is a much easier thing than actually frying a missile fired at a stationary target.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Could someone who knows a lot more about lasers that I do speculate on the required laser power to make the aforementioned terminal guidance system unhappy/ineffective. It seems that 10 kw laser power at a minimum is currently doable.  Is this enough to disable terminal guidance?  That is a much easier thing than actually frying a missile fired at a stationary target.</p>
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