Jane’s makes no claim to have found the site; this may be an analysis job whose publication was triggered by the unveiling of Iraq’s Simorgh 3 SLV, which was also the subject of a separate article in Jane’s Missiles and Rockets.

Their image is from the DigiGlobe WorldView-1 satellite and was taken on February 6. It shows the site at a more advanced stage of construction that the Google Earth images shown on ArmsControl Wonk.

Some key points from their analysis:

The layout of the site shows that many new buildings are in close proximity to the new pad. Although this might suggest that the new pad is a test stand for engines or complete first-stage vehicles rather than a launch facility, a search of the general area has shown no signs of what could be a launch pad under construction.

The dimensions of the apron, pad and tower would be suitable for a vehicle of about 2.5 m diameter, but a two-stage Simorgh 3 would need a tower of about half as tall again as the current height (which may not represent the full height planned for what could be an initial stage of operations.

The only building in a position to be the control room is an above-ground construction that seems uncomfortably close to the pad. An earth excavation for what could become an underground control room is located further from the pad.

Two large buildings are being built about 250 m from the pad. One is a possible vehicle checkout and integration building. Another cluster of buildings even further from the pad are identified as being either related to the construction work or having been built as a possible administrative facility.

The ‘non-trivial facility’ mentioned by Allen Thomson shows partially underground construction. This, and the obvious security features caused it to be identified as a possible munitions-storage facility.

The general state of the site and the rate of progress makes it unlikely that operations are unlikely to begin until late this year, or some time in 2011.

This happens all the time to intelligence agencies; why would the “open source” community here be any different?

Making matters worse… There aren’t really that many of us, we have finite hours in the day, and we’re not getting paid to spend all our time reviewing the complete open source data set looking for new developments. With all of North Korea, Iran, Syria, Myanmar, and to a lesser degree the more open nuclear powers and everyone else on our plates, there’s a lot for us to be trying to keep an eye on.

It sort of rubs salt in the wound that it was the Free Republic that noticed; but in general it’s useful foreign intelligence signal to noise ratio approaches zero, so it’s not worth following with that goal in mind.

I was assuming the Simurgh is assembled horizontally. If it’s assembled vertically and Allen’s new building is the foundation for a tall VAB then it’s big enough. I don’t think we have any evidence for a vertical assembly and transporter – and Iran only does horizontal to date – but it’s well enough known to be another credible path.

Payload preparation perhaps? IIRC the NRO had a secure Shuttle payload facility at Cape Canaveral.

If the Simurgh first stage were the largest assembled unit there, that might fit. Stacking the second stage on pad is not abnormal in spaceflight launch vehicle operations.

It is a unusually secure facility, with the separate wall and gate.

I’ve checked around and, as far as I can tell, the only people who picked up on that, or at least who said anything about it, were the Freepers and some like-minded folks.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2401923/posts

Why wasn’t this development more widely known/discussed at the time, now three months ago?

1 March 20010 should be 1 March 2009.

here they are:
http://www.defense-update.com/photos/semnan_space_center_021209.html

Also of interest, is the fact that in contrast to the Safir ground section, which was constructed in delay relatively to the missile, the new launch complex is being built hand in hand with the Simurgh. A test launch THIS SUMMER would not be impossible, in my view.